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Here is the evidence:

Whenever we talk of Circle Voting to people, we hear "everyone I know votes."  This section is dedicated to all of you that say that.  We've got the numbers on our side. And if you are deep in politics think about the people you may know in other contexts: socially, the internet, your health club, your neighborhood....   So hear goes:

39% of those eligible did not vote in 2004; 32% did not vote in Ohio, the "must win" state.

The election in 2004 was heavily contested and very expensive and it was lowest percent of nonvoters since 1968.  .

And yet 39% of those eligible did not vote.  Even when we look at Ohio, the most contested states where the campaigns spent millions and owned the airwaves, 32.% of those eligible did not vote. http://elections.gmu.edu/Voter_Turnout_2004.htm

And lots more people don't vote in midterm elections.  In 2006, 58.7% of those eligible did not vote.  There are even nonvoters in local elections.  This gives you a sense of the potential power for Circle Voting.  Bringing out some additional voters in a local election could affect the eventual zoning of a beautiful piece of land near you.

Nonvoting is highest among those making less money and among young people, the ones most affected by the issues that could stimulate Circle Voting.

The  US Current Populations Survey of voting is conducted after the election and asks people if they voted.  There are substantial nonvoters in every demographic group.

By annual family income, non voting ranges from 14% among those over 100K to 52% for those under 20K.  In age in ranges from 27% for those 65-74  to 53% for those 18-24.

31% that own there own home don't vote; it is much larger for those that rent 52%.  (Note thatall of these numbers understate the level of not voting by a couple percent because people often the more socially approved answer, in this case voting, even to a government survey.)

One out of four intended to vote in 2004, but never made it.

 Many people intend to vote but then never make it.In late October,2004  a CBS News/NYTimes Poll found that 81% of the people would "definitely vote"  in November.  Even more said they would "probably vote."   The proper comparison to this is 55% based on voting age population.   Polls are based on people over 18, but are not adjusted for eligibility to vote.  Therefore)  There fore 26% of the people said they would definitely vote, but then didn't vote.

People even remember voting when they didn't

The social desirability around voting is so strong that people remember voting when they didn't. Or at least they tell the interviewer that they had voted.   In July,2008 a NBC/Wall St. Journal Poll found that 86% of the American people said they voted in 2004.  This means that 31% of the people said they  voted when in reality they didn't vote.

This kind of over statement has been known among pollsters for a long time.  In fact, pollsters always ask this with a qualifying statement. Here is the exact wording of the question:

"A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the November 2004 election for president?"

This is what people told an interviewer that they didn't know who asked a question that tried to make it easy to say that they didn't vote. 

Elections often turn on the less motivated, occasional voters. And there are plenty of them.

I've just focused on 2004 and talked about voters and nonvoters. That applies to any one election.  But the world is not that simple.  Many people vote occasionally.

The October 2006, the Pew Center found that only 35% could be classified as regular voters in mid-term and presidential elections. Others are more intermittent or rare.  It is these occasional voters that usually determine the winner in elections.

As election day approaches, the media story is usually about the undecided's. They certainly matter. But often the bigger story is about the occasional, less interested voters. There are so many of them that small changes in motivation can make the difference in who wins. 

This explains why fundraising is so important.  Big budgets are needed to win over and motivate the occasional voters because they don't pay much attention until the end.  Negative campaigning is particularly effective because it keeps the opponents less supporters home.

Sharing information can really make a difference

This same Pew study found that fully three-quarters (76%) say they sometimes feel they don't know enough about the candidates to vote. We share recommendations about movies, restaurants, music, etc. It doesn't have to be an argument, just a friendly sharing of our vote choices.

"Everyone I know votes"

This is a common reaction to Circle Voting. So please read this section carefully.

And even if you are deep in politics, think of the people you may know in other contexts, e.g. socially, the internet, health club, PTA,